What do recent events in Syria mean for Syrian refugees?
After 14 years of conflict, recent developments in Syria have raised hopes that the world’s largest forced displacement crisis may finally be resolved, but the future remains uncertain.
12.12.24
© UNHCR/Ximena Borrazas
An offensive by armed opposition groups that began in northwest Syria on 27 November and quickly spread to other parts of the country, reached the capital, Damascus, early on Sunday morning. By the end of the day, President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule had collapsed, leaving Syria at a crossroads.
Over the past 14 years of conflict and crisis, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed or injured and more than 13 million have been forced from their homes – half the pre-war population. Over 7 million Syrians are displaced inside the country while more than 6 million are living as refugees, mainly in neighbouring countries including Türkiye, Lebanon and Jordan, but also in Europe and other countries around the world.
Many refugees are now wondering what the events of recent days will mean for them. While the situation is still evolving rapidly and many questions remain, this is what we know.
1 million people newly displaced
Since the start of the offensive on 27 November, approximately 1 million people have been newly displaced from areas including Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Idlib governorates. For more than one in five, this was at least the second time they had been displaced.
In addition, between late September and late November, Syria received more than half a million people fleeing Israeli airstrikes in neighbouring Lebanon. About 60 per cent were returning Syrians, while the rest were Lebanese. Since a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect on 27 November, some 40,000 Lebanese refugees have returned to their country.
Thousands returning, others fleeing
Figures are not yet available, but thousands of Syrian refugees have reportedly started returning to the country from Lebanon via the official Masnaa border point and other unofficial border crossings. At the same time, some Syrians have fled in the opposite direction into Lebanon.
Refugees are also returning from Türkiye through the Bab al-Hawa and Bab al-Salam border crossings to north-west Syria.
Most refugees opt to wait and see
Millions more Syrian refugees are still trying to understand what the dramatic events of the last two weeks mean for them and their families. They are following developments closely to assess whether the transition of power will be a peaceful one that respects their rights and allows for a safe return.
“There is a remarkable opportunity for Syria to move toward peace and for its people to begin returning home,” said UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi on Monday. “But with the situation still uncertain, millions of refugees are carefully assessing how safe it is to do so.”
Grandi added that refugees must be able to make informed decisions and that developments need to evolve peacefully for “voluntary, safe and sustainable returns to finally occur”. UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, stands ready to support refugees returning to Syria, as conditions allow, but given the current uncertainty, refugees will continue to need protection in host countries and time to make informed decisions on whether to return home without undue pressure.
Governments also assessing developments
In response to the rapidly evolving situation inside Syria, several governments in Europe have suspended decisions on asylum applications from Syrians while they await clarity on security and human rights conditions in the country.
UNHCR is calling on all States to ensure Syrians in need of international protection can still seek safety and asylum. They should still be granted the same rights as other asylum-seekers while they wait for decision-making on their applications to resume.
Once conditions in Syria are clearer, UNHCR will also provide detailed guidance on the international protection needs of Syrians that will help States in processing applications.
Humanitarian crisis
After more than a decade in exile, many refugees no longer have homes or jobs to return to in Syria. Years of conflict have devastated their country’s economy and infrastructure, leaving 90 per cent of the population relying on some form of humanitarian aid.
Regardless of how the situation unfolds, millions of Syrians will need help with shelter, food and water to get through the coming winter and beyond.
UNHCR and its partners are on the ground in Syria, delivering assistance wherever the security situation allows.
More support needed
In recent years, dwindling donor support has driven millions of Syrian refugees into extreme poverty and placed huge strain on countries and communities hosting them. It has also increased the pressure on refugees to return home before they are ready to safely do so.
Grandi called for “patience and vigilance” while a transition takes place and urged donors to provide the support necessary for hosting countries to maintain their solidarity and generosity.
